Hopefully all AB citizens reads this article. Given the reality of the process and potential outcomes versus the 'upside' - what is the 'upside' in view of the realities? It's certainly not economic; it's certainly not independence in a global world and with a US takeover, the examples of other geography grabs by the US is evidence - of outcome. This whole AB tantrum is sophomoric - likewise with Quebec. Unlike Quebec, AB doesn't have a different language or culture for that matter. It's extremely difficult to see any 'upside'.
I lived through 2 referendums in Quebec. They do not think anything long term, just the thrill of independence. It would be a disaster if they separated.
They think that would be better? They’re just grievance based. Ottawa is an object of their grievance. But there’s more than enough evidence that the federal govt, that Ottawa does not, and has not treated Alberta as poorly as they think.
I have a copy, and it is a very interesting read, based on the odd claims being made by the Quebec Crown around the 1995 referendum.
The book discusses the international caselaw, as well as Canadian constitutional law, around the idea of Provincial Crown separation. Contrary to what separatists suggest, it would be far easier for a First Nation to separate from a Provincial Crown than it would be for a Provincial Crown to separate from the Canadian federation.
The reality of Canada's land claims being built upon treaties with First Nations (and Inuit for the parts of the Inuit Nunaat that are claimed Canada's jurisdiction) is poorly understood by the general public. Canada couldn't just walk away and let Alberta ignore those treaties, and have the honour of the crown protected (IE: the Canadian institutions remain intact) as Canada not protecting those treaties in one region would open an international incident that would put the rest of Canada's land agreements into question.
After the book rules out the various "easy" paths that separatists incorrectly believe are possible, the document gets to the only real path which is "effective control", which requires a violent revolution. Alberta (and Quebec, which initiated this nonsensical thinking in the first place) does not already have its own military to establish that control, so support from some other government willing to go to war (or at least credibly threaten war) with Canada and Canada's allies would be required.
Would Alberta be partnering with the USA to be taken over? Would they be partnering with Russia or China? Obviously the UK and France are not going to side with Alberta over Canada, and countries not a permanent member of the UN security council wouldn't have the veto power required to protect Alberta from being held accountable for violating international law.
I don't know who Alberta believes they would partner with, but the notion that there could be a peaceful bloodless separation was never legally possible.
Russell- good heavens this is excellent! So glad I came across it! I think it deserves a Substack post all on its own. Wondering CR if you can make that possible? It’s so simply stated, no word salad, nothing extraneous! My compliments my friend!!
Excellent article! Quebec separatists would do well to pay attention to it. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the leader of the Parti Québécois, said recently that when his party gains power and sovereignty is attained, Québécois will be able to keep their Canadian passports. Umm. I don’t think that decision is his to make. 😂😂😂
All of the listed considerations for creating an independent state are valid. Many of us who saw the endless wrangling of Quebec in the '80's and '90's are fully conversant with these. If you are not, go look it up!
The same issues, costs, gaps and gotcha's apply to Alberta 40 years later. Furthermore, the Treaty Lands and First Nations have demonstrated that they are not interested in giving up their legal relationship with the Government of Canada to, once again, divide their lands among a bunch of grasping, greedy white men (yes, white men!) whose sole interest is plunder.
The idea of somehow grafting Alberta onto the US is farcical at best and stupid at worst; the territory formerly known as Alberta would become nothing more than a pantry to be sucked dry by the same avaricious white men who pillage the resources of the US for their own gain. I lived in the US for many years. It is not a place anyone should want to be - during my residence there it evolved from something that was recognizable to Canadians into a poisonous sewer that is toxic to humans.
Take your rose-coloured glasses off! Stop romanticizing 'America' as some aspirational nirvana. The streets are not paved with gold and, even if they were, YOU would not be able to get any of it. Wake Up!!! I was born and bred in Alberta and I AM CANADIAN🍁🍁
Alberta is financially dependent on the oil industry and doing next to nothing to adapt to climate change. Eventually, their precious oil will become worth less than sand as the rest of the world switches to renewable energy sources. The current American government doesn't believe in climate change, so they're not likely to be much help in dealing with the problem, even as forest fires, floods and ice storms keep getting worse. The USA wants Canada's oil, gas, lumber and minerals. They couldn't care less about the people. Consider how the Trump administration is treating Americans who lose their farms in a drought or their homes in a forest fire or flood or tornado. States that need emergency help are getting nothing. On the other hand, consider how much your Canadian healthcare access is worth. Many of my American cousins are paying more for healthcare than they do for rent. If you need surgery or cancer treatment, you could go bankrupt.
I just don't understand how anyone could think that becoming the 51st state would solve anything. Ask anyone who lived in fascist Germany how much fun that was. The situation in the USA could get a lot worse and it's already a horror show.
Alberta is financially dependent on the oil industry and doing next to nothing to adapt to climate change. Eventually, their precious oil will become worth less than sand as the rest of the world switches to renewable energy sources. The current American government doesn't believe in climate change, so they're not likely to be much help in dealing with the problem, even as forest fires, floods and ice storms keep getting worse. The USA wants Canada's oil, gas, lumber and minerals. They couldn't care less about the people. Consider how the Trump administration is treating Americans who lose their farms in a drought or their homes in a forest fire or flood or tornado. States that need emergency help are getting nothing. On the other hand, consider how much your Canadian healthcare access is worth. Many of my American cousins are paying more for healthcare than they do for rent. If you need surgery or cancer treatment, you could go bankrupt.
I just don't understand how anyone could think that becoming the 51st state would solve anything. Ask anyone who lived in fascist Germany how much fun that was. The situation in the USA could get a lot worse and it's already a horror show.
Thank you for a comprehensive and sobering analysis of what Alberta will require subsequent to independence or annexation. I appreciate Kalyrn’s comments above and hope most Albertans will want to remain in our nation.
Great article, well explained and laid out. It is a daunting task to even contemplate for those who think that somehow, magically they can disengage from the country that sustains them. A province with a very small population, and with their perceived oil wealth diminishing.
The Albertan majority has to make sure that they keep their province intact and vote out Ms. Smith and her party of malcontents.
Getting what they wished for just might not be what it is all cracked up to be. If I had my choice I would rather be a grumpy partner in Canada than a vassal slave of the United States
Great article, unfortunately Alberta separatists are not thinking long term, they have a grudge against Ottawa and think the end justifies the means. Before voting to separate they should surrender their passport and denounce their citizenship, you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
The reality is that they think being a US colony is great when it means they have even less control of their lives and no guarantee of US passports either.
The whole thing is a farce. I say this as an Albertan. Nothing they do or say has any serious thought or planning behind it. The economy of Albertan will be stunted due to fleeing investment. The UPC are killing education and healthcare just in time to see the world demand for oil slow down as global south pivots to cheaper and more affordable energy in renewables.
They should have continued the path Rachel Notley so well laid out for them - instead of the constants chants of Rachel Notley and NDP “destroyed the province.” But of course they’d never ever do that! Think it’s largely that ignorance, stupidity, a grasp for power and money, and cruelty tops everything.
It’s too bad Notley stepped away from politics. It’s just too bad the conservatives were so scared to lose another election that they merged with the wild rose and killed and semblance of actual conservative thought in favour of maga. Incompetence and corruption = maga
I agree. She was phenomenal. However, I believe NDP at the top cost her the election. They’re the ones giving orders and they were so wrong insisting she focus on Dani’s dishonesty, instead of her (Rachel’s) astounding accomplishments. And I told the morons exactly that in numerous cranky emails. And think about what losing an election she should have won did to Rachel’s psyche. I’d be - okay I’m just done with this shit. And in that we lost an absolutely phenomenal premier.
Hopefully all AB citizens reads this article. Given the reality of the process and potential outcomes versus the 'upside' - what is the 'upside' in view of the realities? It's certainly not economic; it's certainly not independence in a global world and with a US takeover, the examples of other geography grabs by the US is evidence - of outcome. This whole AB tantrum is sophomoric - likewise with Quebec. Unlike Quebec, AB doesn't have a different language or culture for that matter. It's extremely difficult to see any 'upside'.
Loved “tantrum” and sophomoric! It also SO fits with trump. The juxtaposition is great!
I lived through 2 referendums in Quebec. They do not think anything long term, just the thrill of independence. It would be a disaster if they separated.
They just want to be American territory
They think that would be better? They’re just grievance based. Ottawa is an object of their grievance. But there’s more than enough evidence that the federal govt, that Ottawa does not, and has not treated Alberta as poorly as they think.
There is a book I referenced at the end of this article I wish more Canadians read:
https://r.flora.ca/p/alberta
Sovereign injustice : forcible inclusion of the James Bay Crees and Cree territory into a sovereign Québec
There is a preview at https://archive.org/details/sovereigninjusti0000gran/page/n1/mode/2up
I have a copy, and it is a very interesting read, based on the odd claims being made by the Quebec Crown around the 1995 referendum.
The book discusses the international caselaw, as well as Canadian constitutional law, around the idea of Provincial Crown separation. Contrary to what separatists suggest, it would be far easier for a First Nation to separate from a Provincial Crown than it would be for a Provincial Crown to separate from the Canadian federation.
The reality of Canada's land claims being built upon treaties with First Nations (and Inuit for the parts of the Inuit Nunaat that are claimed Canada's jurisdiction) is poorly understood by the general public. Canada couldn't just walk away and let Alberta ignore those treaties, and have the honour of the crown protected (IE: the Canadian institutions remain intact) as Canada not protecting those treaties in one region would open an international incident that would put the rest of Canada's land agreements into question.
After the book rules out the various "easy" paths that separatists incorrectly believe are possible, the document gets to the only real path which is "effective control", which requires a violent revolution. Alberta (and Quebec, which initiated this nonsensical thinking in the first place) does not already have its own military to establish that control, so support from some other government willing to go to war (or at least credibly threaten war) with Canada and Canada's allies would be required.
Would Alberta be partnering with the USA to be taken over? Would they be partnering with Russia or China? Obviously the UK and France are not going to side with Alberta over Canada, and countries not a permanent member of the UN security council wouldn't have the veto power required to protect Alberta from being held accountable for violating international law.
I don't know who Alberta believes they would partner with, but the notion that there could be a peaceful bloodless separation was never legally possible.
Russell- good heavens this is excellent! So glad I came across it! I think it deserves a Substack post all on its own. Wondering CR if you can make that possible? It’s so simply stated, no word salad, nothing extraneous! My compliments my friend!!
I am always flummoxed by people who are unprepared to accept how difficult this would be. It’s not as simple as waving goodbye. Ughh🫤😑
Lack of education
Beautifully said and summarized. Thank you.
Excellent article! Quebec separatists would do well to pay attention to it. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the leader of the Parti Québécois, said recently that when his party gains power and sovereignty is attained, Québécois will be able to keep their Canadian passports. Umm. I don’t think that decision is his to make. 😂😂😂
UM - I think you’re right!! It’s profound ignorance and arrogance that puts forth such a scenario.
I don’t know how Quebec can keep their Canadian citizenship unless Canada agrees to a phased transition
Exactly!
All of the listed considerations for creating an independent state are valid. Many of us who saw the endless wrangling of Quebec in the '80's and '90's are fully conversant with these. If you are not, go look it up!
The same issues, costs, gaps and gotcha's apply to Alberta 40 years later. Furthermore, the Treaty Lands and First Nations have demonstrated that they are not interested in giving up their legal relationship with the Government of Canada to, once again, divide their lands among a bunch of grasping, greedy white men (yes, white men!) whose sole interest is plunder.
The idea of somehow grafting Alberta onto the US is farcical at best and stupid at worst; the territory formerly known as Alberta would become nothing more than a pantry to be sucked dry by the same avaricious white men who pillage the resources of the US for their own gain. I lived in the US for many years. It is not a place anyone should want to be - during my residence there it evolved from something that was recognizable to Canadians into a poisonous sewer that is toxic to humans.
Take your rose-coloured glasses off! Stop romanticizing 'America' as some aspirational nirvana. The streets are not paved with gold and, even if they were, YOU would not be able to get any of it. Wake Up!!! I was born and bred in Alberta and I AM CANADIAN🍁🍁
So good Jane, shared to FB. Hope you don’t mind.
Love this! Spot on
Alberta is financially dependent on the oil industry and doing next to nothing to adapt to climate change. Eventually, their precious oil will become worth less than sand as the rest of the world switches to renewable energy sources. The current American government doesn't believe in climate change, so they're not likely to be much help in dealing with the problem, even as forest fires, floods and ice storms keep getting worse. The USA wants Canada's oil, gas, lumber and minerals. They couldn't care less about the people. Consider how the Trump administration is treating Americans who lose their farms in a drought or their homes in a forest fire or flood or tornado. States that need emergency help are getting nothing. On the other hand, consider how much your Canadian healthcare access is worth. Many of my American cousins are paying more for healthcare than they do for rent. If you need surgery or cancer treatment, you could go bankrupt.
I just don't understand how anyone could think that becoming the 51st state would solve anything. Ask anyone who lived in fascist Germany how much fun that was. The situation in the USA could get a lot worse and it's already a horror show.
Awesome commentary!! Thank you!
Alberta is financially dependent on the oil industry and doing next to nothing to adapt to climate change. Eventually, their precious oil will become worth less than sand as the rest of the world switches to renewable energy sources. The current American government doesn't believe in climate change, so they're not likely to be much help in dealing with the problem, even as forest fires, floods and ice storms keep getting worse. The USA wants Canada's oil, gas, lumber and minerals. They couldn't care less about the people. Consider how the Trump administration is treating Americans who lose their farms in a drought or their homes in a forest fire or flood or tornado. States that need emergency help are getting nothing. On the other hand, consider how much your Canadian healthcare access is worth. Many of my American cousins are paying more for healthcare than they do for rent. If you need surgery or cancer treatment, you could go bankrupt.
I just don't understand how anyone could think that becoming the 51st state would solve anything. Ask anyone who lived in fascist Germany how much fun that was. The situation in the USA could get a lot worse and it's already a horror show.
Thank you for a comprehensive and sobering analysis of what Alberta will require subsequent to independence or annexation. I appreciate Kalyrn’s comments above and hope most Albertans will want to remain in our nation.
The domestic trade barriers and limited national development makes for isolated provinces
Thank you, we haven’t heard of any progress from dismantling internal trade barriers lately, unless I’ve missed updates.
Think I heard it’s been accomplished a bit ago!
Yes, some of the big items but many provinces are still not playing ball because they want to “protect” their own niche areas of trade, etcetera.
Yeah - takes time. And Carney has been very clear on that point.
Great article, well explained and laid out. It is a daunting task to even contemplate for those who think that somehow, magically they can disengage from the country that sustains them. A province with a very small population, and with their perceived oil wealth diminishing.
The Albertan majority has to make sure that they keep their province intact and vote out Ms. Smith and her party of malcontents.
Getting what they wished for just might not be what it is all cracked up to be. If I had my choice I would rather be a grumpy partner in Canada than a vassal slave of the United States
That is why they are better off in Canada and working on local reforms that help locals instead of idiotic ideas that distract from actual problems
Thanks and I hope people realize how it actually works
Great article, unfortunately Alberta separatists are not thinking long term, they have a grudge against Ottawa and think the end justifies the means. Before voting to separate they should surrender their passport and denounce their citizenship, you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
They don’t. Nor have they ever - which in my opinion is why we have Dani and are in the mess we’re in.
The reality is that they think being a US colony is great when it means they have even less control of their lives and no guarantee of US passports either.
The whole thing is a farce. I say this as an Albertan. Nothing they do or say has any serious thought or planning behind it. The economy of Albertan will be stunted due to fleeing investment. The UPC are killing education and healthcare just in time to see the world demand for oil slow down as global south pivots to cheaper and more affordable energy in renewables.
They should have continued the path Rachel Notley so well laid out for them - instead of the constants chants of Rachel Notley and NDP “destroyed the province.” But of course they’d never ever do that! Think it’s largely that ignorance, stupidity, a grasp for power and money, and cruelty tops everything.
It’s too bad Notley stepped away from politics. It’s just too bad the conservatives were so scared to lose another election that they merged with the wild rose and killed and semblance of actual conservative thought in favour of maga. Incompetence and corruption = maga
I agree. She was phenomenal. However, I believe NDP at the top cost her the election. They’re the ones giving orders and they were so wrong insisting she focus on Dani’s dishonesty, instead of her (Rachel’s) astounding accomplishments. And I told the morons exactly that in numerous cranky emails. And think about what losing an election she should have won did to Rachel’s psyche. I’d be - okay I’m just done with this shit. And in that we lost an absolutely phenomenal premier.
Agreed
Makes sense given it is likely an attempt to turn Alberta into US territory and undermine Canada